🔗 Share this article An Prediction Market Participant Earned $Nearly Half a Million from Bets on the Ouster of Maduro. In this photo illustration, a Polymarket logo is seen displayed on a smartphone. A trader made nearly half a million dollars by predicting the removal of Venezuela's president shortly prior to it was publicly declared, leading to inquiries about the possibility of profiting from non-public details of the event. Sudden Shift in Predictions Predictions made on the forecasting site, an online prediction market, that the leader would be out of power by the month's conclusion increased in the period preceding former President Trump stated on the weekend that the Venezuelan leader had been seized. A single trader, which became a member recently and placed four wagers, all on Venezuela, made more than $436,000 from a initial bet of $32.5K. Who placed the bet is a mystery. The anonymous account had only a string of letters and numbers for identification. Market Signals Before News Break Platform data shows that users put the odds of the president's removal at just under 7% in the afternoon of Friday, January 2nd. However the market's assessment had jumped to eleven percent by late Friday night and spiked dramatically in the early hours of the next day, suggesting a sharp shift in market sentiment immediately prior to the official statement was made. "This particular bet has all the characteristics of a bet based on non-public details," commented an industry expert. Several of other traders also profited large payouts from similar wagers. Legal Questions Grows Some lawmakers are starting to take note. A new rule introduced on Monday aims to prohibit public officials from participating on forecasting platforms if they have "material nonpublic information" related to a wager. The Prediction Market Landscape Event-driven betting sites have surged in popularity in the past few years, with traders able to wager on everything from elections to political events. Prediction markets faced scrutiny under the previous administration. But it has received a warmer welcome during the current presidency. Using confidential knowledge is illegal in the securities markets, but there are less oversight in the prediction market arena. An official representative for another major platform said their site "has clear rules against such activities of any form."